Could a peace deal with Iran be signed today given that Khamenei's funeral is scheduled for July?

President Trump signaled on Saturday that the US-Iran peace deal could be signed as early as Sunday, June 14, today, while Iran's foreign ministry has urged caution on exact timelines, saying the process requires more internal deliberation. Polymarket prediction markets, which have seen more than $310 million in trading on the question, currently reflect high confidence that a permanent deal will be reached by the end of June, citing Pakistan's announcement that the final text is agreed and Trump's own statements that the settlement is essentially complete.

Iran's state television meanwhile confirmed that funeral proceedings for former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in the opening US-Israeli strike on February 28, will be held between July 4 and July 9. The multi-day farewell will include processions through Tehran and the holy city of Qom, before Khamenei is buried at the Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad, his birthplace and one of the most sacred sites in Shia Islam. The delayed funeral, originally planned shortly after Khamenei's death but postponed due to expected massive turnout, will take place during Muharram, a traditional period of mourning in the Shia calendar.

Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has emerged as a figure of significant interest in the peace negotiations, with analysts noting that any durable deal will require the acquiescence of Iran's new political and religious leadership structure. Mojtaba has not been seen publicly since the war began and is widely regarded as less ideologically flexible than some civilian officials in Tehran who have engaged with the peace process. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi met separately with Russian and Chinese ambassadors in Tehran on Saturday to brief them on the latest developments, underscoring how closely both Beijing and Moscow are tracking a resolution that would reshape energy markets and global geopolitics.

A tanker was also struck by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman on Friday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations center reported, though all crew members were confirmed safe. The incident serves as a reminder that even as diplomatic momentum builds, the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters remain dangerous. Trump is expected to discuss formal demining operations for the Strait at the G7 summit in France beginning Monday, with senior officials describing Hormuz access as a key deliverable that any final deal must credibly guarantee.